The Moroccan election campaign.

The Bush administration loves to highlight Morocco's political progress as a bright spot in an otherwise unrepentantly autocratic Middle East—and Morocco's young king is basking in the glow. Next month's election will be a multifaceted test. Among other things, it will gauge the popularity of Morocco's Islamist Party of Justice and Development and reveal whether top-down reforms, emanating from a centralized monarchy, can produce meaningful democratization. The burning question, though, is how many Moroccans will even bother to vote. What if you build a democracy and nobody comes? - Slate.

What happens if you hold an election and nobody comes? This was the headline of an article by Tamara Cofman Wittes, writing for the online journal Slate - and she has a point. When you take a look behind the rhetoric about an engaged electorate, it is clear that voter turnout has been trending downward in every election since the democratization push began in 2002. Back then only just over 50% of registered voters took the trouble to vote and of those who did, 17 percent cast blank protest ballots.

Off the record conversations with representatives of the parties and even some Moroccan officials indicates that they are concerned that the electorate is disengaged and that the actual turn out on September 7th will be embarrassingly low. According to the Slate article, the government is so concerned about citizen participation that it launched a nationwide effort to sign up new voters—but the campaign achieved barely half its goal of 3 million new registrants. About 79 percent of the eligible population is now signed up and able, in principle, to vote.

As preparations for the coming legislative elections scheduled for September 7 gather pace in Morocco, political parties are unveiling their programs and promises for the five years to come. But economy and employment seem to be a top concern in every camp, though the modus operandi differs.

The Socialist Union for Popular Forces (USFP), a party member of the actual government coalition, pledges two million jobs by 2012, in a country where a huge cohort of some 600,000 young degree holders join the job market every year, and where, as was recalled by the party's First Secretary Mohamed El Yazghi, only 150,000 jobs are available.

USFP, which participates in government since 1998 after three decades in the opposition, also prioritizes what Mr. El Yazghi calls "social gender". "We plan to create a ministry and a higher council to serve as a watchdog in terms of equality and administrative services," he said in a recent interview with Maghreb Arabe Presse ( MAP). It's like a follow-up of the policy opted for by our government, said the Minister of Environment.

A good performance of the economy appears also among the targets of the Istiqlal (independence) party (PI). But the approach is more specified. For the PI leader, Abbas El Fassi, the objective is clear: a growth rate of 6% (excluding agriculture, the Moroccan economy achieved a growth rate of 8% in 2006); a poverty rate pegged down two percentage point, if the party wins elections.

By 2012, the PI (government coalition) will reduce the jobless rate to less than 7%, instead of 10% today, while maintaining inflation at 2% and making 80% of the 30 million Moroccans benefit from medical coverage.

For the newly created Moroccan Union for Democracy (UMD), which engages in the coming elections under the banner of “Economic liberalism and social solidarity” accelerating the growth rate of the economy is the only remedy to the situation.

“It is imperative to settle the problems of employment and poverty,” UMD head, Abdellah Azmani told MAP. This can be done through an array of socio-economic-based measures able to guarantee social stability and “accelerate the economic and social development pace in our country.”

The Environment and Development Party (PED) shares about the same concerns with the other parties, with a clear environment-oriented approach. “The PED will endeavor to achieve a genuine economic take-off, and to encourage social justice, based on environment, which was erected as a priority in our electoral program,” the party’s leader said.

Ahmed Alami insisted on developing and diversifying the national economy in order, he said, to reach a sustainable growth rate, and thus curb the unemployment rate and encourage investments.

To remain true to its vocation, the PED provides for enacting laws that protect natural resources, introduce the environment in the economic and social equations. It also pledges controlling and rationalizing the use of chemical products.

Tax cuts seem, however, a particularity of the USFP and IP programs. The socialist party promises to slash income taxes and to create a tax that will be imposed on middle-size businesses. It sets it at 25%. As to the Istiqlal party (right), it proposes to cut the personal income tax imposed on middle-class worker to 35% down from 40% at present. The Istiqlal also pledges to gradually curb the VAT from 20% to 18% by 2012.

Morocco counts over 30 political parties that will compete for the 325 seats of the House of Representatives. The September 7 polls, which will be followed, for the first time, by national and international observers, are open to 15,510,505 eligible voters. The electoral campaign is scheduled to start today ( August 25 ) and will last until the eve of the elections day.

So how will Moroccans vote - if indeed they do? Here is Tamara Cofman Wittes analysis: ... most members of parliament (with the notable exception of the Islamist opposition) don't even bother to show up when the body is in session. Instead, some use their parliamentary status and the legal immunity it grants them to advance their own narrow interests and sometimes to cover criminal activity. In this environment, the most rational Moroccan voters may well be those who give their ballot endorsements in direct exchange for the cash or food some candidates all but openly offer.

If she is correct then Moroccan democracy is in a fragile state with voter dissatisfaction gaining ground as they sense that the democratic institutions have little substantive authority, and citizens' preferences, as expressed at the ballot box, rarely have much impact on government policy. The citizen alienation that results threatens to undermine the credibility of the nascent democratic process.

Voter dissatisfaction has been seized on by the Islamist parties who have a track record of being able to muster their followers into the voting booths. This is a scenario that clearly worries, not only the King, but also the business elites who have been enjoying a boom time. In response they have a well organised campaign aimed at increasing the middle-class vote. But it may not be enough to curb the growing reach of the Islamist PJD who some commentators expect to do well. If this eventuates it leaves the King in an difficult situation. While calls to strengthen the parliament and reduce his own power situation grow he may well find himself tempted to direct a minority coalition to form government. If he does, then faith in the fledgling democratic process will suffer and those unhappy at the pace of change may well decide to seek it through less democratic means. That outcome would be a tragedy for Morocco.

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